TradeTheNews.com Europeu Market Update: Silenciosa de dados de fabricação mais suave sensação de apetite ao risco

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Share This Story: | | Email Wednesday, June 01, 2011 5:48:53 AM

 TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Softer Manufacturing data calms risk appetite sentiment

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India May Markit Manufacturing PMI: 57.5 v 58.0 prior
- (JP) Japan May Vehicle Sales Y/Y: -38.0% v -51.0% prior
- (FR) France Q1 ILO Unemployment Rate: 9.7% v 9.4%e; Mainland Unemployment Rate: 9.2% v 9.0%e; Mainland Unemployment Change: -7K v -22K prior
- (IN) India Apr Trade Balance: -$9.0B v -$5.6B prior; Exports Y/Y: 34.4% v 43.9% prior; Imports Y/Y: 14.1% v 17.3% prior
- (IR) Ireland NCB Manufacturing PMI: 51.8 v 56.0 prior
- (AU) Australia May RBA Commodity Price Index: 107.3 v 106.1 prior
- (SW) Sweden May Swedbank PMI Survey: 56.1 v 59.2e
- (TU) Turkey May Manufacturing PMI: 50.6 v 52.7 prior
- (PD) Poland May Manufacturing PMI: 52.2 v 54.4 prior
- (HU) Hungary May PMI: 52.3 v 56.9 prior; Lowest reading since Sept 2010
- (NO) Norway May PMI: 56.9 v 55.4e
- (DE) Denmark Apr Retail Sales M/M: 0.9% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: +8.1% v -7.7% prior
- (SP) Spain May Manufacturing PMI: v 50.6 prior
- (SZ) Swiss Apr Real Retail Sales Y/Y: +7.5% v -0.2% prior
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank raises the Benchmark Interest Rate by 25bps to 3.00%; As Expected
- (SZ) Swiss May SVME-Purchasing Managers Index: 59.2 v 57.5e
- (CZ) Czech Apr Manufacturing PMI: 55.9 v 59.0 prior
- (IT) Italy May PMI Manufacturing: 52.8 v 53.5e
- (FR) France May Final PMI Manufacturing: 54.9 v 55.0e
- (GE) Germany May Final PMI Manufacturing:57.7 v 58.2e
- (EU) Euro Zone May Final PMI Manufacturing: 54.6 v 54.8e
- (GR) Greece May PMI Manufacturing: 44.5 v 46.8 prior
- (UK) May PMI Manufacturing: 52.1 v 54.1e
- (UK) Apr Net Consumer Credit: £0.5B v £0.2Be; Net Lending: £0.7 v £0.7Be
- (UK) Apr Mortgage Approvals: 45.2K v 47.0Ke
- (UK) Apr M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.9% v -1.1% prior; M4 Ex OFCs 3M Annualized: -2.0 v 0.5% prior
- (DE) Denmark May PMI Survey: 58.0 v 64.6 prior
- (SA) South Africa May Kagiso PMI: 56.0e v 56.4 prior
- (IR) Ireland May Live Register Monthly Change : +2.6K v -1.6K prior; Unemployment Rate: 14.8 v 14.7% prior

Fixed income:
- (RU) Russia sells RUB15.5B vs. RUB20.0B indicated in 2021 OFZ Bonds
- 5:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold approx €8.48B vs. €7.5-8.5B indicated Range in 2018, 2021 and 2023 bonds
- Sold €1.55B in 4.0% 2018 Oat; Avg Yield 3.02% v 3.34% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.95x v 3.21x prior
- Sold €5.00B in 3.25% 2021 Oat; Avg Yield 3.50% v 3.77% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.54x v 2.53x prior
- Sold €1.93B in 4.25% 2023 Oat; Avg Yield 3.63% v 3.95% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.96x v 2.88x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0 (nil) in 7-Day Dollar Tender at fixed 1.1%
- (SW) Sweden sold SEK2.0B in 3.5% 2022 Bonds; Avg Yield 2.915%
- (PO) Portugal Debt Agency IGCP) sold €850M vs. €0.75-1.0B indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 4.976% v 4.652% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.7x v 1.9x prior

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations:
- Australia Q1 GDP declines by largest amount in 20 years due to weather effects
- PMI Manufacturing data weaker in both Asia and Europe
- German press: New aid package for Greece underway
- UK press: central bankers may warm to the idea of soft restructuring

Equities:
FTSE 100 -0.10% at 5984, DAX -0.10% at 7287, CAC 40 flat at 4005, IBEX 35 flat at 10471, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 21048, SMI -0.20% at 6541

- European shares dipped ending the prior sessions' rally as traders pause ahead of US unemployment data. Greece's situation reversed to confusion as German press reported that IMG will not pay its share of fifth tranche to Greece at the end of June.
Axa [CS.FR] rallied over 3% after announcing five year strategic targets, aiming at a 15% adjusted ROE in 2015 and an underlying EPS compound annual growth rate of 10% through 2015. Nokia [NOK1V.FH] also continued to fall after lowering its Q2 outlook on Tuesday morning.

Speakers:
- German press FAZ reported that it was considered certain that IMF would not pay its share of fifth tranche to Greece at the end June. The article added that participation of the IMF was envisioned in a new program for Greece, aid in the amount of €60-70B with the EU share of new plan to come by way of EFSF
- Germany Gov Adviser Bofinger commented that Greece did pose a contagion risk and believed that a debt restructuring was worth the risk. He added that the EU wpuld step in if IMF did not fund Greece with the fifth tranch and that the ECB might have to reconsider Greek restructuring
- ECB Stark: Greece must intensify its efforts to reduce the deficit and debt. He reiterated the view that a debt restructuring or extension was inappropriate as a restructuring did risk the collapse of Greek banking system.
- Bank of Spain chief econ de Molina commented that the economic recovery in Spain to be gradual in the short-term
- Greece Central Bank Gov Provopoulos: Reiterates view that scenario of Greece returning to its Drachma currency was preposterous
- German coalition budget official Fricke: IMF contribution to Greek aid is 'factual and legal precondition' for Germany's part of aid. He added that Germany's share in Greek bailout was fixed
- S&P comments on the Euro Zone and stated that capital spending underpined Europe's recovery with Eurozone's core members contributing more than its periphery
- IMF commented that Sweden should continue to tighten its monetary stance for 2011. The agency noted that home prices seemed overvalued even if debt crisis did not spread to core countries
- Chinese press reported that the PBoC was likely to raise interest rates in June with a potential move coming as early as June 4-6th
- Japan opposition party submited a no-confidence motion against PM Kan
- Iran Parliament: President Ahmadinejad acted illegaly by declaring himself as caretaker oil minister
- IEA: Not planning any imminent release in oil stockpiles

Currencies/Fixed income:
- The European morning focus on the periphery situation for developments. The EUR/USD hit a fresh 4-week high near 1,4450 on reports that a new aid package for Greece was underway. The recent spat of soft US data increased the prospects of an extended period of easy Fed policy and weighed upon the USD sentiment. However, the risk aversion theme was trying to resurface with the plethora of weak economic data that has ensued in all regions of the globe.
- The weak batch of PMI data hit the GBP currency the hardest. The GBP/USD fell by over 50 pips particularly after the output index fell below the pivotal 50 level for the first time in two years. The data again raised questions about speculation whether the BOE would tightening its monetary policy any time soon

Political/ In the Papers:
-Despite easing inflation data, analysts continue to expect further rate hikes out of the ECB. In the Telegraph article, IHS Global Insight noted that July is seen as most likely for the next ECB rate hike. Similarly, Capital Economics analyst Jonathan Loynes expects the ECB to signal a rate hike for July at its June meeting.
- Data released by the Irish Central Bank reported that Ireland's April bank deposits declined €12 billion, the smallest amount since last September. Total April deposits, including both resident and non-resident deposits in on-shore and off-shore banks, were at €618.5 billion.
- The Chairman of the S&P Index Committee, David Blitzer, said the US housing market may be facing a double-dip. In the Telegraph article, the first quarter S&P Case-Shiller housing price index confirmed that the market is facing a double dip, where the average housing price declined 5.1% from a year ago. The overall index hit its lowest level since the summer of 2006.
- According to the Financial Times, recovery in British consumer spending is set to be the slowest in 180 years, as household spending is seen to be just slightly more by 2015 than they were before 2008. Citing Bank of England data, consumer spending on average recovered to 12% following peak within seven years, with the Office of Budget Responsibility forecasting 2015 spending to be 5.4% above 2008 highs.

***Looking Ahead***
- (CZ) Czech May Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -67.5B prior
- (PE) Peru May Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.4%e v 3.3% prior; Wholesale Prices M/M: No est v 1.1% prior
- (RU) Russia May Reserve Fund: No est v $27.1B prior; Wellbeing Fund: no est v $94.3B prior
- (IR ) Ireland May Consumer Confidence: no est v 57.9 prior
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 27th: No est v 1.1% prior
- 7:30 (US) May Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: no est v -4.8% prior
- 7:45 (US) ICSC Chain Store sales
- 8:15 (US) May ADP Employment Change: 175Ke v 179K prior
- 8:55 (US) Redbook Weekly Reatil sales
- 9:00 (BR) Brazil May PMI Manufacturing: no est v 50.7 prior
- 9:00 (EU) ECB's Trichet speaks in Aachen, Germany
- 9:30 (SI) Singapore May Purchasing Managers Index: 51.5e v 52.5 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 52.0e v 53.0 prior
- 10:20 (EU) ECB's Trichet speaks in Aachen, Germany
-10:00 MX 487) Central Bank Economists Survey
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil May Trade Balance: $3.6Be v $1.9B prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr Construction Spending M/M: 0.5%e v 1.4% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Remittances: no est v $2.1B prior
- 10:00 (US) May ISM Manufacturing: 58.8e v 60.4 prior; Prices Paid: 81.0e v 85.5 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $6-8B in Notes/Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 52-week Bills
- 12:00 (IC) Iceland Q1 Current Account (ISK): no est v -54B prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy May New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -2.2% prior
- 12:25 (US) Fed's Pianalto speaks on Labor Markets in Columbus, OH
- 13:00 (IT) Italy May Budget Balance: no est v -€8.8B prior; Budget Balance YTD: no est v -€40.1B prior
- 13:30 (EU) ECB's Trichet speaks in Aachen, Germany
- 16;30 (US) API Energy Inventories
- 17:00 (US) May Total Vehicle Sales: 12.85Me v 13.14M prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: 9.80Me v 10.20M prior  

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