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(CH) CHINA MAY ACTUAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) Y/Y: 13.4% V 15.2% PRIOR; YTD Y/Y: 23.4% v 26.0% y/y
- (SI) SINGAPORE APR RETAIL SALES M/M: 5.7% V 1.0%E; Y/Y: 8.1% V 3.6%E; EX AUTO: 10.1% V 8.4%E
- (JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) JUNE MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT: UPGRADES ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMY (1st time since March)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 DWELLING STARTS Q/Q: +3.1% V -0.8%E (1-year high)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JUN WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE M/M: -2.6% V -1.3% PRIOR (5-month low)
- (KS) SOUTH KOREA MAY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.3% V 3.7%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 RETAIL SALES EX INFLATION Q/Q: 0.9% V 0.9%E
- (KS) SOUTH KOREA MAY EXPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: -1.5% V -1.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: 3.3% V 7.7% PRIOR; IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: -2.3% V 0.7% PRIOR (first decline in 11 months); Y/Y: 13.2% V 19.0% PRIOR
- (SI) SINGAPORE Q1 FINAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 1.9% V 1.9% PRELIM (3-year low)
- (PH) PHILIPPINES APR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.2% V 7.4% PRIOR
- (UK) UK MAY NATIONWIDE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 55 V 45E (9-month high)
- (CL) CHILE CENTRAL BANK RAISES NOMINAL OVERNIGHT RATE BY 25BPS TO 5.25%; AS EXPECTED
- (CO) COLOMBIA APR TRADE BALANCE: $697M V $550ME
***Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.1%
- S&P/ASX -0.7%
- Kospi -0.3%
- Taiex -0.2%
- Shanghai Composite -0.5%
- Hang Seng -0.4%
- Straits Times Index +0.1%
- S&P Futures -0.4% at 1,285
- Spot Gold +0.1% at $1,524/oz
- July Crude -0.5% at $98.90
- July Copper -0.2% at $4.15
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- A mixed day in the markets, overnight China hiked the RRR by 50bps to 21.50% after strong but slowing economic data, while not unexpected it is always a surprise as to when the next move from the PBoC will be. Media speculation now ranges from another rate hike any day now, to a hike in June will not happen despite it fitting the every other month pattern started in October 2010. May FDI in China was +13.4% v 15.2% prior, YTD +23.4%. Economic data that further affirms that China is growing albeit a bit slower. Crude held below the $99 level for most of the session, soft commodities were slightly positive, while copper, -0.4% and silver -0.2%. Major forex crosses were in small ranges with more pressure on the euro as a decision has not been reached on Greece.
- Bank of Korea (BoK) Gov Kim soothed the markets that when he updates forecasts in the short term the 3.9% CPI forecast for 2011 will not change much; Household debt is a major factor in rate decisions and has been sharply increasing over the last 3-years. Rate increases are not delayed moves. Inflation is expected to remain higher on strong demand and expected steady growth. He reiterated the normal risks of high oil prices, China tightening, European debt crisis, US unemployment and housing bubble. Fin Min Bahk: Global double dip not likely, but emerging countries could see slower growth.
- RBA Gov Stevens: Underlying inflation more likely to rise than fall over the next few year; Need to adapt to high levels of AUD. Further tightening of monetary policy likely to be needed at some point. Rising China and India demand for commodities a structural shift, not cyclical. In other Australian news, according to the latest Newspoll survey, support for Australia PM Gillard fell to a new record low of 30% approval according to the latest Newspoll survey.
- Bank of Japan's June monthly economic report upgraded the assessment for the first time since March. Reiterating prior comments including that the economy remains under downward pressure but there are signs up a pick up and that supply side constraints are easing and household sentiment improving. In a separate Japan Govt Report: FY11 GDP will be nearly flat due to earthquake/tsunami; Real GDP growth to be 2-3% in FY12.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (PH) Moody's raises Philippines sovereign rating to 'Ba2' from 'Ba3' (one-notch); Stable Outlook
- (CH) China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) 2011 Trade surplus will become smaller; Import growth will outpace export growth
- USD/JPY: (JP) Japan Fin Min Noda: Reiterates view to take steps in the forex market if moves are deemed excessive or disorderly
- (CH) S&P revising Outlook for China property developers to Negative from Stable; Soaring market in Hong Kong may be at risk of a sharp correction
- (US) House Speaker Boehner calls on Pres Obama to provide more detailed reason to commit troops to help enforce no-fly zone in Libya - Washington Post
***Equities***
- QAN.AU: Lowers 2011/12 domestic capacity expansion target to 5.5% from 8.0% y/y; Cuts H2 CapEx by A$100M and FY12 by A$300M
- UOB.SI: Exec Kay Hian: China's increase of the RRR suggests heightened worries; Will increase rates twice more this year
- RIO: Accelerating Pilbara iron ore expansion with investment of $676M; 333M tons/year in iron ore capacity will be reached in H1 2015
- VBA.AU: Virgin Australia and Qantas have both refused to give estimates for the costs incurred from the Chile volcanic ash interruption - Australian Press
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -3.03M V 0E; GASOLINE: +1.1M V +500KE; DISTILLATE: -425K V +1ME; UTILIZATION: 84.5% V 84.7% W/W
- JGB: Japan's MoF sells ¥1.0T 20-yr 1.9% JGBs (1.9% prior); bid-to-cover 2.45x v 3.89x prior
- (CH) China steel mills produced record-high 60.3M tons of steel in May, +2% m/m; Production to remain high in June until seasonal deceleration in July - China Daily
- (CH) PBoC sells CNY30B in 10-yr bonds at 3.99%, above 3.92-3.97% forecast range
- (AU) Australia ABARES sees 2011/12 wheat crop at 26.2M tons, +7.8% from previous forecast
- (AU) Australia Newcastle Exports -17.2% for week ending June 13th
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall 0.4% to 9,665 tons from 9,707 tons prior (lowest since 9,613 in Sept 2010)
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