Error in deserializing body of reply message for operation 'Translate'. The maximum string content length quota (8192) has been exceeded while reading XML data. This quota may be increased by changing the MaxStringContentLength property on the XmlDictionaryReaderQuotas object used when creating the XML reader. Line 1, position 9081.
RISK APPETITE HEALTHY ON OPTIMISM FOR FAVORABLE GREEK AUSTERITY OUTCOME US OFFICIALS URGE GOVERNMENT TO TAKE ACTION ON US DEBT CEILING EURO LIKELY TO FIND OFFERS AHEAD OF 1.4500 USD/JPY CONSTRUCTIVE ON DAILY CLOSE ABOVE 81.00 USD/CHF ONCE AGAIN LOOKING TO CARVE SOME FORM OF BASE Market risk appetite has been given a reprieve over the past couple of days, with currencies equities and commodities all showing well bid on the back of renewed optimism for a favorable outcome to the Greek austerity vote later today. German and French creditors who were once very much opposed to the passage of such measures have now warmed up to the idea of a restructuring in an effort to prevent a more catastrophic default scenario result, while recent Reuters reports show a Socialist member of Greek parliament reversing his position and now saying that he will support the austerity bill. However, even if the austerity package is approved, there is still another vote due out on Thursday which will determine how these measures will be implemented and this could prove to be an even more challenging obstacle to overcome. Additionally, there still remains a high level of uncertainty over the longer-term outlook for the Eurozone economy in the face of the regional debt crisis and we would not expect to see the current rally in risk extend much further solely on the back of any favorable Greek austerity measures outcome. Elsewhere, Dallas Fed President Fisher has been out reiterating his view that once the economy picks up, the Fed will need to consider removing some monetary policy accommodations, but also concedes that the time for such action has not yet arrived. This follows the Fed’s commitment in the previous week to leave rates at ultra low levels for an extended period of time. Fisher also proceeded to point a finger at Congress after saying that the US will need to fix its fiscal problems in order for the economy to grow. On a similar note, Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody’s and former advisor to McCain, has also been attempting to warn Congress of the severity of the US debt situation after telling reporters that a recession would be likely if the federal government failed to meet its obligations even for the smallest of moments. Zandi urges that the debt ceiling must therefore be raised as any sign of missed Treasury payments would have a “staggering” impact. President Obama is scheduled to host the Senate Democratic leaders later today to discuss the progress on US deficit negotiations. Looking ahead, the ongoing saga in Greece is expected to continue to dictate direction in price action, while any softer economic data will also likely weigh some more on risk. In European trade, UK mortgage approvals and consumer credit are due out at 8:30GMT, followed by Eurozone confidence data at 9:00GMT and the Swiss KOF leading indicator at 9:30GMT. Market participants will then key in on the highly anticipated Greek Parliament vote into the North American open. US equity futures and oil prices have given back some of their recent gains, while gold trades marginally higher into the European open. ECONOMIC CALENDAR
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EUR/USD: The market remains well bid on dips towards 1.4000 for now with the latest price action resulting in some consolidation. However, look for any additional rallies from here to be well capped below 1.4500 on a daily close basis ahead of the next downside extension back towards and eventually below 1.4000. A coiling of the 10/20/50/100-Day SMAs also suggests that a near-term break of the range is due, and given the more medium-term structure, we anticipate the break will be to the downside. Ultimately, only a daily close back above 1.4500 gives reason for concern.
USD/JPY: After undergoing a fairly intense drop off from the 85.50 area several days back, the market looks to have finally found some support in the 80.00 area and could be in the process of carving out some form of a base. Look for setbacks to continue to be well supported around 80.00 with only a close back below 79.50 to give reason for concern. From here we see the risks for a fresh upside extension back towards the recent range highs at 85.50 over the coming weeks and the latest break and close back above 81.00 helps to confirm. Look for a test of next key short-term resistance by 82.20 over the coming sessions.
GBP/USD: Although the short-term structure remains bearish, setbacks seem to be well supported in the 1.5900’s for now. However, we classify the latest price action as some bearish consolidation ahead of the next major downside extension with the market now looking to establish back below the 200-Day SMA and extend declines below next key support at 1.5750 further down. In the interim, look for any rallies to be well capped ahead below 1.6250 on a daily close basis.
USD/CHF: Despite the intense downtrend resulting in recently established fresh record lows below 0.8300, short/medium/longer-term technical studies are looking quite stretched to us, and we continue to like the idea of taking shots at buying in anticipation of a major base. Aggressive players may want to consider a counter-trend long on a break to fresh record lows below 0.8275, while conservative contrarians should wait for confirmation on a daily close back above 0.8360. Back above 0.8550 will be required to officially relieve immediate downside pressures and accelerate gains.
Article source: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/opening_comment/2011/06/29/Currency_Rebound_Could_Prove_Short-Lived_With_Optimism_Already_Priced_In.html
View the original article here
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário