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***Economic Data***
- (FR) France Q1 Final Gross Domestic Product Q/Q: 0.9% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2%e
- (HU) Hungary May Unemployment Rate: 11.0% v 11.2%e
- (SP) Spain May Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -6.6% v -2.0% prior; Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -5.8% v -2.0% prior
- (NO) Norway May Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.5%e
- (UK) May Net Consumer Credit: £0.2B v £0.4Be; Net Lending: £1.1 v £0.7Be
- (UK) May M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.9% prior; M4 Ex OFCs 3M Annualized: +1.0% v -2.2% prior
- (UK) May Mortgage Approvals: 45.9K v 46.3Ke
- (UK) Apr Index of Services M/M: -1.2% v +0.8% prior; 3m/3M: 0.9% v 1.3%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Business Climate Indicator: 0.92 v 0.90e; Consumer Confidence: -9.8 v -10e; Economic Confidence: 105.1 v 105.0e; Industrial Confidence: 3.2 v 3.5e; Services Confidence: 9.9 v 9.0e
- (PO) Portugal Jun Consumer Confidence: -50.7 v -50.3 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -2.2 v -2 prior
- (GR) Greece May PPI Y/Y 7.3% v 8.2% prior
- (BE) Belgium Jun CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.4% prior
- (SZ) Swiss Jun KOF Leading Indicator: 2.23 v 2.23e
Fixed Income:
- (GE) Germany sold €4.825B in 2.75% Apr 2016 BOBL; Avg Yield 2.16% v 2.45% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.1x v 1.9x prior
- (RU) Russia sold RUB30.1B vs. RUB50.0B indicated in 7.4% 2017 OFZ Bonds; Avg Yield 7.85%
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0 (nil) in 7-Day USD liquidity Tender
- (EU) ECB allotted €132.2B in 3-Month Tender vs. €123Be
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations:
- First of two key votes set to be taken in Greece; Framework vote today highly likely to pass
- China PBoC advisor Li Daokui calls for more interest rate hikes to fight inflation
- Low demand for German 5-year Bobl.
Equities:
FTSE 100 +1% at 5826, DAX +1.2% at 7258, CAC 40 +1.2% at 3898, IBEX 35 +1.5% at 10,081, FTSE MIB +1.7% at 19,777, SMI +1.3% at 6082
- European shares rose on optimism that Greek Parliament will vote in favor of the austerity package which will unblock the IMF tranche of €12B. The voting is expected to start in the early afternoon Athens time. The technical implementation will be voted on Thursday. Two of the four Pasok rebels have changed their minds and decided to support the government and vote for the package. Banks, including the peripheral institutions, were trading higher.
Senior plc [SNR.UK] rallied after announcing that its H1 revenues were above expectations.
Speakers:
- Bank of Spain released its monthly bulletin and noted that Q2 Spanish retail data was weak. It also reiterated that the ECB to maintain strong vigilance
- ECB’s Stark rejected the idea that banks could exchange Greek debt for paper guaranteed by EU States as he believed that a Brady Bond style solution would be a violation of the EU’s no bail-out clause. In other comments he reiterated that Greece could not always expect support
- German DIW Institute cut Germany Q2 GDP forecast to +0.4% q/q from +0.6% q/q view
- France might appoint the Budget Min Baroin as the next Fin Min. Agricultural Minister Le Maire has also been mentioned as a candidate
- Czech deputy Fin Min stated that the probability rose of Eurobond in September rather than before summer
- EU Commission to propose raising up to €50B annually from financial transaction tax between 2014 thru 2020 period
- EBA’s Chairman stated that speculation on stress test results are “unfounded” as results have yet to be finalized
Currencies/Fixed income:
- Overall the market was relatively quiet heading into the Greek austerity vote but the USD was softer against its European counterparts. Dealers note that EUR currency did hit fresh session highs above 1.4415 on growing prospect that the Greek austerity package will likely go through Parliament. Comments from ECB member Stark took some wind out of the Euro’s upward momentum. EUR/USD trading around 1.4385 as the NY morning approached and ahead of the key Greek vote.
Political/ In the Papers:
- The Bank of Spain noted in their monthly bulletin that the second quarter retail data was weak. Business confidence in the construction industry declined in the months of April and May. However, there were positive comments made in the tourism industry. For the January-April period, the government budget data indicated that it was on track to reach the 2011 deficit target of 6% of GDP. Factors which could weigh on growth include the contraction in the construction sector.
- The ratings agency SP commented on the French insurance industry noting that it was to face further tests. The industry will have to face potential uncertainties regarding the tax advantages of life policies and the future application of the EU’s Solvency II regulatory framework, which is due to come into force in 2013; as well as low interest rates and dampened equity markets. French players are more exposed than their European counterparts and this weighs on the financial strength of some insurers in our rated universe.
- Following French Finance Minister Legarde’s appointment to head the IMF, the Budget Minister Baroin was appointed as the next Finance Minister according to the financial press.
- In the London Telegraph German, Portuguese, Spanish and Greek banks could be among the firms which fail the EBA stress tests. The banks which could fail the tests may include German and Spanish savings banks.
**Looking Ahead***
- (GR) Greek parliament vote
- (BR) Brazil May Central Govt Budget (BRL) 4.2Be v 15.6B prior
- 6:00 (RU) Russia to sell up to RUB50.0B in OFZ Bonds
- 6:00 (RU) Russia to sell up to RUB20.0B in OFZ Bonds
- 6:00 (IR) Ireland May Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.9% prior
- 6:00 (IR) Ireland Jun Live Register Monthly Change: No est v 2.6K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 14.8% prior
- 7:00 (CA) Canada May Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.3%e v 3.3% prior; CPI Index: No est v 119.8 prior
- 7:00 (CA) Canada May CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.6% prior
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: -0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 8.6%e v 8.6% prior
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 24th: No est v -5.9% prior
- 7:00 (GE) ECB Draghi, Deutsch Bank CEO Ackermann, German Fin Min Schaeuble speak on Market Regulation
- 7:30 (CA) Paul Krugman speaks in Toronto
- 7:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Releases Q2 Inflation Report
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Q1 Current Account: -€4.2Be v -€5.3B prior
- 8:30 (GE) German Chancellor Merkel speaks at CDU/CSU Financial Market Conference, Berlin
- 9:00 (CL) Chile May Industrial Production Y/Y: 6.5%e v 9.5% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 5.6%e v 9.6% prior
- 9:00 (CL) Chile May Total Copper Production: No est v 438.3K tons prior
- 9:00 (CL) Chile May Retail Sales Y/Y: 9.4%e v 8.7% prior
- 10:00 (US) International Monetary Fund (IMF) holds a news conference…
- 10:00 (US) May Pending Home Sales M/M: +3.0%e v -11.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -26.8% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Energy Inventories: Crude: -1Me; Gasoline: 0e; Distillate: +1Me; Utilization: 86.5% w/w
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2-3B in Notes/Bonds
- 11:45 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy speaks at Conference on State of EU
- 12:00 (US) Fed’s Raskin Speaks on `Economic Inclusion’ in Washington
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 15:30 (US) Fed Board of Governors meets on Swipe Fees
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